Model performance

Overall:

Select an election for more:

2008

Map

Final electoral college histogram

National and state polls and the electoral college over time

State vs national deltas over time

Model results vs polls vs the prior

Performance

outlet ev_wtd_brier unwtd_brier states_correct
economist (backtest) 0.0305868 0.0260802 49 

## [1] 0.02160055

Predictions for each state

2012

Map

Final electoral college histogram

National and state polls and the electoral college over time

State vs national deltas over time

Model results vs polls vs the prior

Performance

outlet ev_wtd_brier unwtd_brier states_correct
Linzer NA 0.0038000 NA
Wang/Ferguson NA 0.0076100 NA
Silver/538 NA 0.0091100 NA
Jackman/Pollster NA 0.0097100 NA
Desart/Holbrook NA 0.0160500 NA
economist (backtest) 0.0356429 0.0236942 50
Intrade NA 0.0281200 NA
Enten/Margin of Error NA 0.0507500 NA 

## [1] 0.02746855

Predictions for each state

2016

Map

Final electoral college histogram

National and state polls and the electoral college over time

State vs national deltas over time

Model results vs polls vs the prior

Performance

outlet ev_wtd_brier unwtd_brier states_correct
economist (backtest) 0.0825373 0.0579227 47
538 polls-plus 0.0928000 0.0664000 46
538 polls-only 0.0936000 0.0672000 46
princeton 0.1169000 0.0744000 47
nyt upshot 0.1208000 0.0801000 46
kremp/slate 0.1210000 0.0766000 46
pollsavvy 0.1219000 0.0794000 46
predictwise markets 0.1272000 0.0767000 46
predictwise overall 0.1276000 0.0783000 46
desart and holbrook 0.1279000 0.0825000 44
daily kos 0.1439000 0.0864000 46
huffpost 0.1505000 0.0892000 46 

## [1] 0.03284089

Predictions for each state

Cumulative charts

Calibration plot